Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. ET. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Seriously. 3. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). It's the wrong question. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. There are 391 such counties. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Outstanding. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. White voters without a college degree used to vote more like the country as a whole, which helps explain why these counties maintained their bellwether status for a long time. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. At one end of the I-4 corridor, Tampas Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida without winning Hillsborough. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. "When I came here in 1989, you couldn't be elected dog catcher if you weren't a Democrat," he says. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. ), voted Democrat again in 2020? In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? 2020 Election (1210) Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Fifth, it listswhether each candidate's politicalparty won seats in the House of Representatives which occurred withObama andTrump, but not Biden. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. (subject to censorship). (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. If Clinton is getting in the mid-to-high 30s there, rather than the high 20s, she might have a shot at improving her statewide total enough to beat Trump and McMullin. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. That report was issued on Nov. 12. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. University of Denver, 2. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Not a bad streak. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Its also loaded with government contractors and defense companies hit hard by the sequester. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Sumter County, . Watch Hampton City. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. Until this year. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Team up with others in your region, and help out by They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Watauga has gone for. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Not anymore. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Trump won the other 18 counties. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. It is easy to gloss over this. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. (i.e. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". Trump, who has tended to run better with voters without college degrees, got trounced in the primary in Wake earlier this year. From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. University of New Hampshire . Do you know this baby? Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. All rights reserved. We have looked at every imaginable scenario to build a case for the Democrat party winning the 2020 election based upon how our trusted counties voted. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). It gets a lot more interesting. These counties could play an . Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". 6. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. 11. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. Lets find a coin, and flip it. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. Clinton will win Democratic Clark County, the states population hub and home to Las Vegas. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. Click here, for more. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. Obeng (2016) was similarly skeptical, noting that bellwethers run the risk of producing models that explain what has happened but cannot predict the future. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Free and open-source. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. This county voted with the popular vote each time. In the 1990s, he says, Democrats ran for many local county positions unopposed. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Their hopes are real. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. They simply vote on merit. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election.
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